Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Future Precipitation Trends Based on Downscaled CMIP5 Simulations Data

Abstract

This study investigates future changes in precipitation over the CRB (Columbia River Basin) in both wet (DJF) and dry (JJA) seasons under RCP85 GHG emission scenario. The simulations from four climate models which participated in CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5) were downscaled using the BCSD (Bias Correction and Spatial Disaggregation) method. After downscaling, extreme value analysis and MME (Multi Model Ensemble) averaging is performed. This study focuses on computing 2, 5, 10 and 25 years return levels for both winter (DJF) and summer (JJA) seasons. The maximum winter precipitation values for 2, 5, 10 and 25 years return periods have been estimated to be about 112, 127, 148 and 171 mm/day respectively whereas the maximum summer precipitation values for 2, 5, 10 and 25 years return periods are observed to be about 56, 81, 96 and 126 mm/day respectively. The MME average outperformed the individual models in simulating the historical precipitation in both seasons. The MME results showed a consistent and significant increase in the extreme precipitation and decrease in mean precipitation in both future wet and dry seasons. Largest increase in precipitation occurs over the higher elevations of the Cascades Range, Coast Range and the Mountainous Range.