Monte Carlo Simulation and Modeling of Schedule, Cost and Risks of Dasu Hydropower Project

Abstract

HPP (Hydropower Projects) are very complex and risky in nature. For HPP, it is extremely important not only to identify risks but also to adopt proper mitigation measure to complete the project with in defined schedule and budget. Attempt has been made in this paper to identify critical risks associated with Dasu HPP and their mitigation measure to complete the project within predefined time and budget. The research methodology involved the questionnaire survey for identification of potential risks with their probabilities and impact. Pert-Master (Oracle Risk) software was used for simulation purposes. After feeding all data in the software, Monte Carlo simulation was run at 1,000 iterations to generate most probable duration of project, most probable cost of the project, critical risks sensitive to duration, critical risk sensitive to cost and statistically analyzed critical tasks/activities, which need due consideration for successful completion of project. Simulated schedule and budget was compared with planned one to find possible deviations, which may be eliminated by using mitigation measures proposed in the last section of the paper.