Application of Lean Agile Resilient Green Paradigm Framework on China Pakistan Economic Corridor : A Case Study

China has recently emerged as the technological and economic giant and an attractive place for investment for MCNs (Multi-National Companies). Many of the high ranked MNC’s have shifted their production facilities to China due to low production cost.Finished products are transported through sea routes passing through Singapore and Sri Lanka, to different Middle Eastern, European and American countries. This major transition has lead to complete transformation of the global SC (Supply Chain);which resulted into extended transportation, distances and led time,thus affecting the four paradigms of SC i.e. lean, agile, resilient and green. Effective integration of all of these paradigms poses a significant challenge for the academia and industry related to SC.The common and critical success factors among these paradigms are reduction in transportation distances and most importantly lead time. Scenario planning technique is used in this study to analyze different trade routes originating from central China. CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor) was identified as the most feasible and economical route owing to its reduced transportation distance and led time. CPEC route also provides us an opportunity to perform trade-offs between the four paradigms; focusing primarily on the critical success factors. These tradeoffs provide us a common ground which lead us to propose a new LARG (Lean Agile Resilient Green) framework. This framework was further validated with the help of results obtained from CPEC case study using scenario planning technique.

G lobalization has put overwhelming pressure on transportation and logistics, which hascompelled this sector to improve its practices [1].Early awareness of latest innovations, knowledge about cutting edge technologies, finding best location of retail, cheapest price of merchandises, minimum delivery and lead time are few important factors Supply Chainis described as network that links various activities, from the end customer to the end suppliers, passes through services and manufacturing, so as the flow of money, material and information could effectively be managed to ultimately meet the requirements of the businesses [4].In business nowadays it is assumed that SC's should compete in the market instead of organizations [5].
SCM (Supply Chain Management) considered an important factor for better achievement if the organizational goal, e.g.improved customer service, enhanced competitiveness and increased profitability [6].Reichhart [7] definedlean paradigm as minimizing the waste in SC, while ensuring that right product should be available to end customer at right location and time.Baramichai [8] definedagileparadigm as the integration of the business allies to enable new capabilities in order to answer the rapidly changing, persistently fragmenting markets.Nowadays market is categorized by highest level of volatility and turbulence, resilience paradigm is described as the SC's ability to cope-up with the unexpected turbulences [9].Srivastava [10] defined Green paradigm as "integrating environmental thinking into SCM, including product design, material sourcing and selection, manufacturing processes, delivery of the final product to the consumers as well as end-of-life management of the product after its useful life".

LITERATURE REVIEW
Reduction in setup time seems to be critical in the linkage among product quality, lean production, and overall performance of business [18].To counter the ambiguity in the decision constraints, flexibility is the obligatory requirement in the supply chains.SCs can only adapt the requisite changes if it is highly agile and flexible in nature [19].
Nowadays real competition is between SC rather than businesses.Present SCM philosophies e.g.LARG are previously analyzed individually as management paradigms [14,20].Although the adoption of lean philosophies may promote increased profitability; however the lean practices may leave a high level of reliance on human resources [21].
Sustainability has become very important to business researchers and practitioners over the last few decades.
These concerns has got due attention after rapid exhaustion of natural resources and also due to awareness about corporate social responsibility [22].
The transportation operation, like other supply chain operations should essentially add value.This can be achieved through proper order accomplishments and reduction in lead times.The multifaceted supplier's network and the delivery channels essentially are efficient and the visibility within the supply chain is a major cause of competitive advantage [23].Espadinha [16] found that due to bigger competition and huge market pressures it is not inexpensive to implement newest SCM paradigms e.g.LARG due to the problem faced during interoperability of these paradigms.
Azevedo [11] proposed a conceptual model in which LARG practices and SCM attributes are proposed.They used causal loop diagrams to symbolize the relationships among different paradigm's practices and attributes of SC.But the relationships were established from the literature review only.
Which could only imitates a limited view of complex SCM dynamics.The tradeoffs among LARG paradigms must be appreciated well, to help enterprises and supply chains to be more sustainable, streamlined and efficient.It is quite necessary to improve an understanding of the affiliations among the LARG paradigms [15].
Carvalho [24] gives an overview of key divergences and synergies among the LARG paradigms.There is strong indication that LARG paradigms complement each other.
According to Carvalho [24], the execution of these paradigms in the SCM creates synergies; in a manner that certain SC features should be managed, e.g.integration-level, production lead-time, transportation lead-time and frequency of informationwhich is presented in Table 1.However, the influence of each paradigm execution on the characteristics scale may be changed.The lean practices or paradigm contributes to the reduction of transportation lead-time and production lead-time; which promote reduction in total leadtime and ultimately minimizes total waste.Although the resilient paradigm, also recommends that lead-time should be reduced [25,26].

LARG PARADIGM FRAMEWORK
Merchandises can be manufactured with one of four discrete SC structures; built for order, assemble for order, design for order and make for stock.In Fig. 1on one side there is lean paradigm and on the opposite side we have resilient SCM paradigm, where both have contradicting and diverging practices.First lean scenario tends to have zero inventories [27], whereas in second case of resilient scenario ideally demands sufficient stock to recover from disruption caused by any disaster [28].Likewise on one side is the green SCM paradigm and on exactly opposite side is the agile SCM paradigm, again both have contradicting and diverging practices.In green SCM paradigm scenario has minimum trip with maximum inventories load, whereas agile SCM [12] paradigm scenario practices dictates that there should be maximum number of trip; to meet the demand in quickest possible time [29].So it is quite evident that all paradigms have diverging and contradicting requirements.If optimum advantage is desired from these SCM paradigms, a common ground should be acquired first, by performing tradeoff among these four SCM paradigms.This common ground will provide a platform from where advantages of all four SCM paradigms could be achieved, instead of pre-selecting any one particular SCM paradigm.

FIG. 1. LARG PARADIGM FRAMEWORK BASED ON COMMON GROUND,ADAPTED FROM
This proposed LARG is a new paradigm which enables organizations to remain at central position till the time all the production, demand and supply conditions are in steady balance state.If balance changes in any one area of production, demand or supply and situation stresses to choose any one particular SCM paradigm then according to situation any one out of four existing SCM paradigms could temporarily be adopted.Once production demand-supply situation normalizes back to steady state, then central common ground should be occupied again, till the time new disruption may not occurred; in this way inertia is also imparted in the system [12].

CENTRAL CHINA LOGISTICS CASE STUDY
In the last two decades emergence of China as technological and economic gigantic is a disruptive phenomenon i.e.
China's changeover from one of the slowly developing economies of the world to themost developedeconomy, because of the factors such as; mass-customized production capability, massive resources and cheap labour [30][31][32].
Growing international inflation lead most of the manufactured product exporting countries like United States to look for cheap alternatives, above mentioned factors transformed china to become leading exporting country.China has liberalized its central and western region as duty free zone, so that this relatively under developed region can flourish.
To grab this opportunity most of industry has shifted to this region, which has transformed central China into industrial cluster [33,34] Ocean whether this route could be used for ships or otherwise [35,36].It was learnt after research that these are just alternative possibilities but are not cost effective options.
The inventories warehoused in perfectly positioned warehouses could play a significant part in global SCM [37].
To devisea logistic related strategy, South Asian and Middle Eastern regions hasa crucial deficit of pragmatic studies [38,39]

METHODOLOGY
The methodology of this research is application of the scenario planning in logistics case study.Scenario planning is technique which is quite relevant to this case study.There is quite considerable amount of literature in which different approaches of scenario planning have been used.But most important among these approaches is based upon the approach developed by shell/SRI [40][41][42][43].Literature review reveals that case study method has been used quite frequently in logistics and SCM [44][45][46][47].

APPLICATION OF SCENARIO PALANNING IN CASE STUDY
The

Gases). As result of this study a new Economic Corridor/
route is proposed, which will also reduce transportation distance and lead time.
After critical analysis of distances tabulated in Table 2, total four logistics route scenarios were created, out of which first two scenarios are shown in Fig. 2 Mexico and United States of America, due to which westernharbors are sufferingovercrowding, as these have attained their throughput [49].Alternatively there are two route options, but these two route options are comparatively longer and follow the longer path (Fig. 2 Route-1).Alternativelyfirst route also passfrom the Pacific Ocean (but bit southwardly), then this route passes through the Canal of Panama and ultimately this route ends up at one of Northern America's country seaport.

FIG. 2. ROUTE -1 AND 2 FROM CHINA CENTRAL TO THE PORT OF NEW YORK FIG. 3. ROUTE-3 AND 4 (SCENARIO C AND D)
Second alternative available for North American route initially originates from central China and then from one of eastern harbor city of China then it passes nearby straits of Malacca.After passing through Arabian Sea, then Gulf of Aden, then it passes through Suez Canal and after that once it reaches Atlantic Ocean this route splits into two different spikes one prong moves strait to North American countries and the other prong changes its direction towards right side i.e., towards European countries.For European and Middle Eastern and North African Countries this Suez Canal route is the only route in operation and in literaturethis route is known as Royal Road [36,39] (Fig. 3

VALIDATION OF FRAMEWORK WITH THE HELP OF CPEC CASE STUDY
Thequantitative resultshave been summarized in section 6( 1) and ( 2) as well as presented in INTRODUCTION Mehran University Research Journal of Engineering & Technology, Volume 36, No. 3, July, 2017 [p-ISSN: 0254-7821, e-ISSN: 2413-7219] 621 Every one SC configuration is appropriate for diverse merchandises based on its demand characteristics.The entire SC configuration orientates its manufacturing and logistics procedures in a different way centered on its strategic significances.Practical repercussions could be high volume production, with uncertain and low demand; that products could be matched with lean SCM paradigm, enabled by effective procedures.Whereas low volume production, with high uncertain conditions; merchandises should be coordinated with agile SCM paradigm, enabled through flexible procedures.Medium volume production and demand medially uncertain conditions; products should be coordinated with leagileSCM paradigm, enabled through combination of flexible and effective procedures[27].Likewise tradeoffs between LARG could be carried out to balance out production, demand and supply conditions.But if the aim is to achieve synergetic results from production, demand and supply conditions: Then we have to evolve a common paradigm strategy through attaining common ground where LARG paradigms could be align; which would be implemented through tradeoffs of flexible and effective procedures.To achieve synergetic results from existing four SCM paradigms, a central common ground has been attainted through tradeoffs among four existing SCM paradigms.New proposed LARG Paradigm in Fig.1is based on the same central common ground.

3 .
, and last two scenarios are shown in Fig. Majority of the Chinese ships end point are Arabian Peninsula, European or Northern American countries.Historically from Asian to Northern American countries majority of trade occurred through straight pathway, i.e. ships passes from the Pacific Ocean, ships mainly de-load goods to the ports situated on the western coastal harbors of the Canada, , Route-3).Around 35% of overall total trade of the world usually uses this existing route.This Royal Road is the most common route used by the shipping vessels to transport merchandises from Asian to the European countries.Persistently following this Royal Road route (which is being a lounger route) results into extra distances and extended lead time.Resultantly it leads to extra total logistics cost and additional production of greenhouse gas emissions, which eventually results into additional globalwarming.All above mentioned complications encourage greatercontests, which force us to re-explore the prevailing transportation and shipping routes of the world's supply chain.Moreover it should also be investigated how world oldest trade route Silk Route (Fig.3Route Option-4) could be revived by augmenting this route into CPEC.The capacity building and improvements in the CPEC route's infrastructure would offer numerous opportunities to improve and revitalize transportation and SC.Moreover it will promote green, long lasting and sustainable prosperity for the East-Asian, Middle Eastern, European or even for the Northern American region[19,50,51].In Fig.2two scenarios are marked as Route Options 1-2.In first two scenarios both route originates from China Central, then this route passes from the Shanghai port after that this route passes from the Pacific Ocean and ultimately this route terminate at one of the port of Northern American continent.Route Option-1, in Fig.2, this route once passesfrom the Pacific Ocean, then this route passes from one of the western coast port of the Northern American continent (in this research, port finalized as port of San Francisco) after this portthis route uses thechoiceof land route to finally terminate at one of the eastern side coast port of Northern American continent (in this research, port finalized as port of New York).However in Fig.2Route Option-2 till port of Shanghai the route is same but when it enters into the Pacific Ocean, it tilts southwards and passes through Panama Canal, afterwards this route passes nearbyWest Indies island then it enters into Atlantic Ocean and finally this route ends up at port of New York along with the Route Option-1.In Fig. 3 two more scenarios are generated, as Options-3 and 4. The scenario depicted as Option-3 up to the Shanghai's port this route trails similar route as used in route Options-1 and 2, however, subsequentlyonce the port of Shanghai is left, Route Option-3 uses alternate pathway by moving in most southward direction passing nearby the straits of Malacca and Singapore, then it enters into Indian Ocean, passing through the Canal of Suez, once this route enters into Atlantic Ocean there it bifurcates into two parts and marked as Option C-D, Option-C moves straight towards west and ultimately terminate at port of the New York City.While Option-D of Route-3 after bifurcation at Atlantic Ocean moves upwards on toward north to terminate at Europe.Whereas Route Option-3 is the only existing trade route from China to the region of Middle East African and European continent; which is known in literature as Royal Road[36].Whereas, route Option-4 is modified new route; this route is introduced as CPEC.Although this is not altogether a new route, because basically it is the revitalization ofold cargo route option which is known as Silk Road.This route also starts from Central China, but moves in opposite direction towards west on land route enters into Pakistan through Kara-Kuram Highway, after that this route uses Pakistanihighways and then passing through port of Gwadar and Arabian Sea; finally it joins, with Route Option-3 near Gulf of Aden, there after Route Options-3 and 4 are same.These scenarios were created and four route options were generated to measure and classify shortest possible route option from China Central to Middle Eastern, African, European and North American countries.Results of all these scenarios are compared with regards to advantages as well as disadvantages and presented in the form of current infrastructure and also by enhanced road management.The cost incurred on capacity enrichment will be very less as compared to the economic profits gained.Reduction in transportation distance and lead time provide a common ground, where we can integrate and align LARG paradigm; so as optimum and synergetic results can be achieved.Not with standing with any one SCM paradigm permanently and placing the SC strategy at central location amongst the existing four SCM Paradigms.Provides opportunity to move towards any one particular SCM Paradigm according to the situation and when situation normalizes falling back to its original central location.This central common ground LARG paradigm framework is based on a strategy which demands insurance of reduction in transportation distances and lead time; which will ultimately promote, reduction of greenhouses gases, reduction in consumption of energy, reduction of inventories as well as warehouse handling cost, reduction of total logistics cost and most importantly enhances sustainability in the system.

TABLE 1 . SYNERGIES AND DIVERGENCES REGARDING LARG PARADIGMS [24]
. But this region is deprived of direct access to coastal harbours, the coastal line of China is approximately

Table 2 .
In Table2, if the distances measured by both or any country of Europe or even any country of North America.

Table 3 .
After analysis of mini scenarios presented in table1 and Table 3 by comparing advantages and disadvantages of all four route options.However these quantitative results could further be utilized with the help of application of scenario planning as qualitative technique for the validation of LARG paradigm framework by using CPEC as a case study.