Mehran University Research Journal Of Engineering &
Technology (HEC Recognized In Category "X")
Publishing Since 1982.



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Least Square Regression Based Integrated Multi-Parameteric Demand Modeling for Short Term Load Forecasting

Keywords: Load Modeling, Short-Term Load Forecasting, Regression Technique, Least Square Error, Load Forecasting Error

Mehran University Research Journal of Engineering & Technology

Volume 33 ,  Issue 2

IRFAN AHMED  HALEPOTO,MOHAMMAD ASLAM  UQAILI,BHAWANI SHANKAR  CHOWDHRY

Abstract

Nowadays, due to power crisis, electricity demand forecasting is deemed an important area for socioeconomic development and proper anticipation of the load forecasting is considered essential step towards efficient power system operation, scheduling and planning. In this paper, we present STLF (Short Term Load Forecasting) using multiple regression techniques (i.e. linear, multiple linear, quadratic and exponential) by considering hour by hour load model based on specific targeted day approach with temperature variant parameter. The proposed work forecasts the future load demand correlation with linear and non-linear parameters (i.e. considering temperature in our case) through different regression approaches. The overall load forecasting error is 2.98% which is very much acceptable. From proposed regression techniques, Quadratic Regression technique performs better compared to than other techniques because it can optimally fit broad range of functions and data sets. The work proposed in this paper, will pave a path to effectively forecast the specific day load with multiple variance factors in a way that optimal accuracy can be maintained